* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HOWARD EP092016 08/01/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 41 43 43 42 39 35 31 28 24 21 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 41 43 43 42 39 35 31 28 24 21 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 38 36 32 29 26 24 22 22 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 13 10 9 11 11 14 8 13 17 21 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -3 -3 -4 -2 -2 -5 -2 -3 -4 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 282 273 274 268 259 236 203 241 243 243 236 243 255 SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.6 25.2 24.2 23.5 23.1 23.2 24.1 24.7 25.3 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 126 121 116 106 99 95 95 105 111 117 120 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -54.4 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 3 2 2 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 67 66 62 60 58 56 54 50 48 40 38 35 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 8 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -2 -9 -16 -11 -18 -5 -13 -5 -17 -15 -22 -22 200 MB DIV 57 45 40 38 33 5 13 4 -15 5 -4 -6 -27 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -3 -2 -4 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -7 -4 -10 LAND (KM) 1444 1496 1558 1603 1649 1785 1965 2030 1748 1469 1197 934 679 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.5 18.1 19.2 20.4 21.4 22.1 22.5 22.8 23.0 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 122.4 123.6 124.7 126.0 127.2 129.8 132.6 135.4 138.2 141.0 143.8 146.6 149.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 11 16 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 4. 0. -4. -7. -11. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.9 122.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092016 HOWARD 08/01/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.46 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.14 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.55 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.47 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.37 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 179.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.65 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.36 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 11.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.86 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 18.3% 13.2% 8.6% 6.7% 7.5% 7.6% Logistic: 3.2% 5.9% 2.8% 1.3% 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 8.4% 5.4% 3.3% 2.4% 2.8% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092016 HOWARD 08/01/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##