* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HOWARD EP092016 08/02/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 47 48 48 46 43 39 35 34 31 29 26 V (KT) LAND 45 45 47 48 48 46 43 39 35 34 31 29 26 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 44 43 39 36 34 33 33 32 32 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 9 8 8 8 4 9 13 17 17 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -3 -4 0 -4 -3 0 -5 1 0 4 10 SHEAR DIR 274 260 231 224 199 226 235 236 248 243 241 248 270 SST (C) 26.9 26.3 25.4 24.8 24.5 24.0 23.3 23.7 24.3 24.9 25.4 25.4 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 128 119 112 109 104 97 101 107 113 118 118 120 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.8 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 61 59 60 57 56 52 47 43 37 34 32 31 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 19 19 19 17 15 14 12 12 11 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -14 -15 -8 -1 -6 -4 -7 -11 -12 -18 -21 -19 200 MB DIV 34 30 34 24 29 -12 -2 0 1 -16 3 0 0 700-850 TADV -4 -4 0 2 5 -1 -1 0 -2 -2 -2 -7 -5 LAND (KM) 1600 1637 1686 1759 1842 2017 1889 1611 1343 1093 845 618 409 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.1 18.8 19.4 20.0 21.0 21.9 22.5 22.7 22.9 23.1 23.1 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 125.8 127.1 128.3 129.7 131.0 133.9 136.8 139.6 142.3 144.9 147.6 150.2 152.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -6. -8. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.4 125.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092016 HOWARD 08/02/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.34 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.06 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.55 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.58 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.28 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 293.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.49 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.85 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 15.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.81 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 16.6% 12.0% 7.6% 6.4% 6.9% 8.4% Logistic: 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.7% 4.1% 2.6% 2.2% 2.3% 2.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092016 HOWARD 08/02/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##