* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HOWARD EP092016 08/02/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 49 48 43 40 35 33 30 28 25 17 V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 49 48 43 40 35 33 30 28 25 17 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 51 49 47 42 38 36 35 34 33 32 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 8 13 11 5 12 13 17 20 20 23 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 -3 -6 -2 -3 -5 2 -2 4 4 9 SHEAR DIR 234 220 172 188 217 217 218 234 229 236 235 274 278 SST (C) 25.6 25.0 24.6 24.4 24.0 23.4 23.7 24.3 24.9 25.4 25.4 25.6 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 121 114 110 108 104 98 101 107 113 118 118 120 125 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -54.5 -54.9 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 60 58 57 54 52 48 43 36 34 30 30 34 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 18 18 16 15 13 14 13 13 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -12 -1 -4 -9 -8 -3 -9 -4 -11 -13 -7 1 200 MB DIV 33 26 35 2 -12 -12 4 3 -6 8 -4 12 -6 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 3 2 -3 2 -6 -5 0 2 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 1707 1771 1844 1940 2013 1918 1638 1351 1070 822 618 409 230 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.2 19.8 20.4 20.9 21.6 22.3 22.6 22.8 23.0 23.1 23.1 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 128.3 129.6 130.9 132.3 133.7 136.5 139.3 142.2 145.1 147.8 150.2 152.9 155.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 13 14 13 13 12 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -7. -8. -7. -7. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -2. -7. -10. -15. -17. -20. -22. -25. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.5 128.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092016 HOWARD 08/02/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.20 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.50 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.50 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.19 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 337.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.43 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.1 to -1.7 1.00 -0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 10.5 81.4 to 0.0 0.87 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 13.3% 10.0% 6.7% 4.9% 5.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.6% 3.4% 2.3% 1.6% 1.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092016 HOWARD 08/02/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##