* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL052016 08/02/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 51 55 63 68 73 73 76 73 76 77 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 51 55 50 35 42 42 39 31 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 51 53 49 34 40 43 42 32 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 14 13 8 13 7 9 7 14 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 1 -1 -5 -3 -4 -1 -2 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 271 285 295 308 306 1 319 10 20 40 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.8 30.1 30.0 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 162 164 166 172 170 162 162 164 168 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 157 158 160 160 161 169 163 152 151 155 158 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 9 11 9 10 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 73 73 71 73 75 74 76 78 79 80 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 13 14 14 18 16 15 12 12 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 68 54 37 40 31 18 20 37 51 48 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 35 43 31 42 80 44 42 50 44 36 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -10 -9 -9 -7 -5 -1 -3 -4 -10 -4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 294 191 113 139 178 -53 -15 69 109 -19 -208 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.5 19.1 19.6 20.0 20.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.8 82.4 84.0 85.1 86.2 88.7 91.1 93.1 94.8 96.8 99.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 13 11 11 12 11 9 9 11 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 35 41 46 47 83 52 18 19 27 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 4. 2. -3. -3. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 18. 23. 28. 28. 31. 28. 31. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.3 80.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052016 EARL 08/02/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.65 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 41.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.34 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.75 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.27 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.77 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 104.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 29.8% 13.9% 11.3% 8.3% 13.4% 27.2% Logistic: 5.4% 35.8% 26.5% 12.0% 0.0% 19.2% 50.1% Bayesian: 0.8% 16.3% 4.5% 0.2% 0.1% 4.7% 30.6% Consensus: 4.5% 27.3% 15.0% 7.9% 2.8% 12.5% 36.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052016 EARL 08/02/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052016 EARL 08/02/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 51 55 50 35 42 42 39 31 28 27 18HR AGO 45 44 46 48 52 47 32 39 39 36 28 25 24 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 47 42 27 34 34 31 23 20 19 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 34 19 26 26 23 15 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT