* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HOWARD EP092016 08/02/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 49 46 42 38 35 31 30 25 20 18 V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 49 46 42 38 35 31 30 25 20 18 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 48 46 44 40 36 34 33 33 31 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 9 9 8 10 14 13 20 19 22 27 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -3 -6 -3 -3 -4 0 0 4 4 12 6 SHEAR DIR 228 175 182 210 225 200 238 217 228 223 243 263 271 SST (C) 25.1 24.7 24.5 24.2 23.9 23.5 24.1 24.6 25.2 25.4 25.5 25.8 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 115 111 109 106 103 99 105 110 116 118 119 122 125 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.8 -55.0 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 60 58 56 53 51 48 40 34 32 30 32 38 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 18 17 16 14 14 13 14 13 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -8 -9 -15 -16 -3 -5 -4 -12 -7 -12 0 11 200 MB DIV 27 30 10 -19 -22 -9 20 -12 7 -3 8 0 6 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 2 -1 0 -1 -7 3 0 4 3 -1 LAND (KM) 1772 1847 1930 2022 2075 1796 1498 1211 963 736 538 347 213 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.6 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.8 22.4 22.6 22.8 22.9 23.0 23.0 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 129.5 130.8 132.1 133.5 134.9 137.7 140.7 143.6 146.2 148.7 151.1 153.6 156.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 12 12 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -8. -10. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -12. -15. -19. -20. -25. -30. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.0 129.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092016 HOWARD 08/02/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.18 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.67 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.11 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 343.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.42 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.89 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 5.8 81.4 to 0.0 0.93 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 16.3% 11.7% 7.0% 6.2% 6.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.6% 4.0% 2.4% 2.1% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092016 HOWARD 08/02/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##