* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102016 08/02/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 45 50 58 65 68 69 68 65 60 57 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 45 50 58 65 68 69 68 65 60 57 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 44 52 59 63 64 63 60 55 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 13 13 14 10 10 8 10 12 16 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -3 -2 -4 -4 -2 0 0 0 -5 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 32 44 42 39 27 353 329 300 297 286 307 301 277 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.5 28.0 27.5 27.2 27.6 28.2 27.3 26.6 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 146 144 141 146 140 137 141 147 138 128 124 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 71 68 63 61 61 58 59 56 56 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 12 13 14 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -13 -30 -41 -41 -39 -34 -26 -28 -25 -40 -33 -34 200 MB DIV 42 45 42 20 15 24 0 18 20 22 11 5 4 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 1 2 2 0 0 -3 -2 -5 -7 -4 LAND (KM) 1210 1252 1315 1383 1440 1606 1812 1980 2158 2191 1882 1684 1573 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 15 14 14 15 14 12 12 13 12 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 19 19 23 19 14 7 17 15 20 17 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 18.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 21. 24. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 20. 28. 35. 38. 39. 38. 35. 30. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.1 115.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102016 TEN 08/02/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.71 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.26 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.74 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.30 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.30 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 115.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.74 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.55 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 24.3% 16.0% 10.0% 0.0% 11.9% 12.5% Logistic: 9.9% 31.1% 14.2% 7.6% 4.4% 12.8% 10.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 23.2% 11.9% 3.7% 1.5% 5.9% 2.2% Consensus: 6.5% 26.2% 14.0% 7.1% 2.0% 10.2% 8.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 TEN 08/02/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##