* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL052016 08/03/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 58 63 68 74 76 77 75 73 69 70 71 V (KT) LAND 50 54 58 63 68 49 34 36 35 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 59 63 68 49 34 37 40 36 30 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 11 7 7 12 6 10 9 18 12 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -2 -3 -2 -3 -3 -4 -2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 288 301 317 298 334 345 333 7 30 47 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.1 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 160 165 164 166 170 171 161 162 165 169 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 154 157 161 160 162 164 162 151 153 158 163 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -51.4 -52.0 -51.5 -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 11 12 8 10 7 10 7 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 71 69 71 75 74 76 80 83 81 79 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 18 20 22 18 16 13 11 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 56 41 53 53 26 16 22 38 52 51 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 55 43 50 80 59 62 42 30 44 49 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 -2 -3 -1 -1 6 -4 -2 -7 -5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 182 109 100 139 106 -137 -33 39 74 -57 -289 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.3 83.6 84.9 86.0 87.2 89.5 91.5 93.2 94.9 97.1 100.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 11 9 8 10 12 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 38 41 40 38 42 52 16 19 26 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 14.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 20. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 1. -2. -6. -10. -16. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 24. 26. 27. 25. 23. 19. 20. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.4 82.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052016 EARL 08/03/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 11.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.72 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.61 4.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.70 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.78 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.37 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.73 2.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 126.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.4 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 12.8% 49.5% 32.9% 19.2% 10.4% 31.5% 35.2% Logistic: 11.2% 52.5% 41.9% 22.0% 0.0% 36.9% 55.5% Bayesian: 4.9% 28.6% 15.4% 2.0% 1.1% 14.2% 47.8% Consensus: 9.7% 43.5% 30.1% 14.4% 3.8% 27.5% 46.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052016 EARL 08/03/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052016 EARL 08/03/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 0( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 0( 4) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 58 63 68 49 34 36 35 30 28 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 53 58 63 44 29 31 30 25 23 22 22 12HR AGO 50 47 46 51 56 37 22 24 23 18 16 15 15 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 45 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT