* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HOWARD EP092016 08/03/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 41 39 36 32 31 25 21 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 41 39 36 32 31 25 21 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 43 41 40 38 34 31 29 28 27 24 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 10 10 8 12 15 21 24 28 25 34 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -6 -3 -1 -4 -4 1 -2 3 5 9 3 SHEAR DIR 199 188 209 223 205 229 243 234 237 236 256 272 263 SST (C) 24.6 24.5 24.2 23.9 23.4 23.7 24.4 25.0 25.4 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 110 109 106 103 98 101 108 114 118 118 120 123 124 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -54.3 -54.7 -54.9 -55.2 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.7 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 58 55 52 49 46 43 35 32 30 30 31 38 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 16 15 14 12 13 11 12 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -18 -24 -20 -15 -6 -13 -7 -19 -16 -15 -8 2 200 MB DIV 25 7 -22 -27 -17 6 8 -3 -2 -11 8 -5 -6 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 -2 -2 0 -3 -6 1 2 4 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1827 1923 2012 2067 1938 1666 1356 1066 817 594 418 276 220 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.3 20.7 21.2 21.6 22.1 22.4 22.7 22.7 22.7 22.7 23.0 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 130.7 132.0 133.4 134.9 136.3 139.0 142.1 145.1 147.7 150.2 152.4 154.7 156.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 13 13 14 13 12 11 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -3. -8. -12. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -6. -9. -7. -9. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -14. -20. -24. -30. -34. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.8 130.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092016 HOWARD 08/03/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.19 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.66 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.56 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.03 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 335.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.43 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.66 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 81.4 to 0.0 0.98 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 12.3% 8.7% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 4.2% 3.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092016 HOWARD 08/03/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##