* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102016 08/03/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 45 49 59 67 73 73 72 69 67 62 V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 45 49 59 67 73 73 72 69 67 62 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 43 51 58 63 65 65 64 60 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 13 13 10 7 5 8 8 11 6 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -2 -4 -5 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 4 1 3 SHEAR DIR 36 36 30 30 20 360 308 290 302 302 272 258 196 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.6 28.0 27.8 27.3 27.6 28.2 27.8 27.0 26.5 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 142 142 146 144 138 141 147 142 134 128 127 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 66 64 62 60 59 59 59 57 55 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 14 13 14 17 19 19 20 20 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -28 -39 -40 -38 -34 -16 -18 -18 -30 -33 -29 -22 200 MB DIV 45 35 22 26 41 33 35 66 44 13 23 23 25 700-850 TADV -2 -1 1 2 3 -1 -1 -4 -5 -4 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1261 1333 1414 1492 1583 1778 1950 2141 2204 1965 1765 1557 1340 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.8 17.4 17.9 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 117.0 118.6 120.1 121.7 123.2 126.1 128.9 131.6 134.2 136.4 138.2 140.1 142.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 14 14 13 12 10 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 21 23 17 12 11 20 13 21 24 8 2 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 16.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 24. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 13. 12. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 19. 29. 37. 43. 43. 42. 39. 37. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.7 117.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102016 TEN 08/03/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.71 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.24 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.64 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.37 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.31 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 130.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.72 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.46 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 22.8% 15.4% 10.0% 0.0% 12.5% 13.3% Logistic: 5.6% 24.1% 10.3% 5.9% 3.3% 12.3% 9.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 21.4% 10.8% 3.4% 1.2% 2.4% 1.0% Consensus: 4.8% 22.8% 12.2% 6.4% 1.5% 9.0% 7.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 TEN 08/03/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##