* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL052016 08/03/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 64 70 76 78 79 79 74 66 64 65 67 V (KT) LAND 55 60 64 70 76 44 33 33 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 65 71 76 45 33 33 29 28 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 7 6 9 11 10 12 17 15 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 -3 -1 -4 -6 -3 -1 3 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 297 316 353 320 330 360 331 16 23 42 33 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.8 29.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 161 163 165 169 170 166 160 158 165 167 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 152 158 160 162 166 165 157 150 148 154 157 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -51.4 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 12 10 9 8 8 8 9 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 69 72 76 74 77 80 83 83 85 84 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 22 24 20 18 16 12 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 46 55 59 40 25 10 46 53 61 80 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 50 56 85 85 76 40 25 48 69 49 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 -1 0 0 1 -1 -4 -4 -5 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 101 37 49 97 33 -146 -66 10 -42 -159 -251 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.1 84.3 85.5 86.7 87.9 90.3 92.3 94.2 95.9 97.6 99.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 9 9 9 8 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 36 26 29 35 20 46 11 39 26 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 23.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 0. -3. -6. -13. -20. -22. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 15. 21. 23. 24. 24. 19. 11. 9. 10. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.0 83.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052016 EARL 08/03/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 11.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.75 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.78 5.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.55 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.92 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.43 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.69 2.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 145.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 4.9 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 5.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 40% is 8.2 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 52.2% 35.5% 25.3% 14.4% 40.2% 31.3% Logistic: 21.9% 62.1% 52.3% 39.9% 0.0% 40.9% 39.0% Bayesian: 7.2% 29.0% 12.6% 3.5% 1.6% 25.2% 41.4% Consensus: 14.4% 47.8% 33.5% 22.9% 5.3% 35.4% 37.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052016 EARL 08/03/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052016 EARL 08/03/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 5( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 77( 77) 0( 77) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 60 64 70 76 44 33 33 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 55 54 58 64 70 38 27 27 22 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 55 52 51 57 63 31 20 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 51 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT