* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102016 08/03/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 41 49 57 61 63 63 60 57 52 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 41 49 57 61 63 63 60 57 52 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 33 34 38 42 45 47 47 45 42 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 12 9 8 6 6 9 9 11 11 14 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -5 -4 -3 -1 -3 -1 0 2 2 4 SHEAR DIR 32 29 29 15 2 334 295 297 279 291 261 244 223 SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.5 27.9 28.1 27.6 27.5 27.9 28.2 27.5 26.7 26.4 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 142 141 145 147 141 140 144 147 139 131 127 126 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 72 71 67 65 64 61 62 57 58 55 55 54 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 15 17 17 18 19 18 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -39 -44 -41 -39 -26 -10 -15 -15 -30 -22 -21 -9 200 MB DIV 35 21 21 26 26 7 29 31 39 17 21 15 21 700-850 TADV -1 2 4 4 1 0 -1 -3 -3 -3 1 2 3 LAND (KM) 1334 1411 1476 1564 1661 1895 2058 2224 2147 1917 1665 1458 1253 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 118.5 120.1 121.6 123.1 124.5 127.6 130.2 132.6 134.7 136.8 139.1 141.0 142.9 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 14 15 14 12 11 10 11 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 21 23 16 12 19 12 19 22 20 20 2 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 19. 27. 31. 33. 33. 30. 27. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.0 118.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102016 TEN 08/03/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.71 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.24 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.32 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.45 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.25 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 140.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.70 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.26 -0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 15.0% 11.3% 7.7% 0.0% 8.9% 10.4% Logistic: 1.4% 5.5% 3.2% 0.6% 0.2% 2.5% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 1.5% 7.9% 5.1% 2.8% 0.1% 3.8% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 TEN 08/03/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##