* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL052016 08/03/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 72 76 80 82 80 78 74 69 68 68 70 V (KT) LAND 60 65 72 76 57 36 34 32 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 60 66 72 77 60 37 31 39 33 29 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 8 8 11 13 7 12 10 15 11 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -5 -3 -4 -4 -2 -3 -1 1 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 323 348 323 324 349 336 339 10 32 27 28 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.1 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.9 30.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 165 168 172 171 160 160 162 168 170 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 157 160 161 165 169 165 151 150 152 159 162 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.8 -51.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.4 -52.1 -51.4 -52.0 -51.3 -51.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 11 9 8 10 7 10 8 10 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 71 74 74 76 78 80 82 81 82 81 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 22 22 22 18 15 13 9 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 59 65 40 25 18 28 45 53 68 63 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 62 86 83 71 39 46 49 61 66 38 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 -2 0 -1 -3 3 -5 -3 -7 -7 -5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 53 77 119 31 -95 -88 9 25 -79 -260 -145 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.8 18.5 18.9 19.1 19.1 19.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.3 85.5 86.7 87.9 89.1 91.4 93.3 95.1 96.9 98.9 101.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 10 9 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 32 32 34 84 47 4 8 33 0 58 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 25.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -11. -16. -20. -21. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 16. 20. 22. 20. 18. 14. 9. 8. 8. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.3 84.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052016 EARL 08/03/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 12.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.70 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 42.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.89 7.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.52 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.46 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.67 3.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 149.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 4.8 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 8.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 7.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 39% is 8.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 17.5% 55.4% 40.0% 33.9% 20.8% 39.0% 26.0% Logistic: 27.2% 67.5% 56.5% 46.1% 0.0% 44.0% 36.3% Bayesian: 15.2% 39.0% 15.2% 4.8% 2.0% 20.4% 31.5% Consensus: 20.0% 54.0% 37.2% 28.3% 7.6% 34.5% 31.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052016 EARL 08/03/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052016 EARL 08/03/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 81( 81) 0( 81) 0( 81) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 65 72 76 57 36 34 32 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 60 59 66 70 51 30 28 26 22 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 60 57 56 60 41 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT