* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102016 08/03/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 53 60 66 70 73 72 71 65 58 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 53 60 66 70 73 72 71 65 58 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 51 54 59 62 64 66 66 62 56 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 7 9 8 7 5 2 2 1 10 8 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -4 -3 -5 -4 -4 0 2 5 6 8 1 SHEAR DIR 32 22 8 352 348 318 324 14 329 234 261 229 247 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.0 27.5 27.7 28.1 28.3 27.6 26.8 26.5 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 143 146 146 140 142 146 147 140 132 128 127 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 70 66 63 63 63 64 61 59 57 56 54 52 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 14 15 16 18 19 20 21 21 22 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -39 -38 -36 -34 -14 -9 -13 -17 -22 -16 -6 -4 200 MB DIV 22 18 28 37 38 28 32 29 42 37 19 -2 -10 700-850 TADV 3 3 1 0 -1 0 -3 -1 -1 0 2 5 5 LAND (KM) 1381 1452 1537 1637 1744 1945 2129 2289 2089 1880 1658 1461 1288 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.5 15.7 16.0 16.4 16.9 17.5 18.0 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 119.7 121.3 122.8 124.2 125.6 128.4 131.0 133.2 135.3 137.2 139.2 141.0 142.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 15 10 18 18 27 27 29 21 19 4 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 26. 30. 33. 32. 31. 25. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.5 119.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102016 IVETTE 08/03/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 3.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.61 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.22 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.28 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.55 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.27 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 214.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.60 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.13 -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 20.1% 16.2% 12.3% 0.0% 14.1% 14.1% Logistic: 4.0% 11.3% 5.7% 1.6% 0.7% 3.9% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 13.4% 4.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% 1.3% Consensus: 4.0% 14.9% 8.7% 5.0% 0.3% 6.2% 5.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 IVETTE 08/03/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##