* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL052016 08/03/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 67 70 71 71 68 69 67 67 67 68 69 V (KT) LAND 60 64 67 52 41 37 34 31 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 66 54 42 33 39 43 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 14 16 14 12 12 9 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -3 -1 -2 -6 -1 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 321 293 302 326 330 324 357 21 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 167 171 168 164 162 162 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 159 160 162 167 163 156 152 153 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 9 8 10 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 74 74 75 75 78 79 79 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 20 19 15 11 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 58 44 27 28 25 40 57 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 80 95 54 51 46 42 56 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 -2 0 -5 -4 -9 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 115 167 53 -79 -114 0 91 -8 -207 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.6 19.2 19.4 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.4 86.5 87.7 88.9 90.2 92.5 94.3 96.3 98.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 12 10 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 37 37 78 0 44 19 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 13.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -13. -15. -19. -20. -21. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 8. 9. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.9 85.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052016 EARL 08/03/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.59 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.24 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.85 4.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.51 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.44 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.67 2.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 116.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.8 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.7 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 42.0% 26.4% 20.2% 10.5% 28.0% 21.0% Logistic: 22.3% 52.7% 36.8% 25.0% 0.0% 23.7% 20.7% Bayesian: 8.4% 21.7% 2.9% 2.9% 1.3% 5.8% 6.9% Consensus: 14.2% 38.8% 22.0% 16.0% 3.9% 19.2% 16.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052016 EARL 08/03/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052016 EARL 08/03/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 0( 3) 0( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 42( 42) 0( 42) 0( 42) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 64 67 52 41 37 34 31 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 60 59 62 47 36 32 29 26 23 22 22 22 22 12HR AGO 60 57 56 41 30 26 23 20 17 16 16 16 16 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 39 35 32 29 26 25 25 25 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT