* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102016 08/03/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 48 51 58 63 71 70 69 66 60 54 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 48 51 58 63 71 70 69 66 60 54 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 50 53 57 60 62 64 63 57 50 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 9 8 7 7 7 2 4 7 6 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -5 -4 -4 -3 1 2 3 4 7 5 SHEAR DIR 30 15 354 355 336 314 346 57 293 226 270 224 215 SST (C) 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.7 28.0 28.3 27.8 27.0 26.3 26.1 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 144 147 146 142 142 145 147 142 133 126 124 123 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 67 65 64 64 63 63 59 59 54 53 53 52 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 16 17 18 19 21 21 22 22 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -40 -39 -34 -26 -6 -12 -7 -18 -8 -1 7 3 200 MB DIV 19 27 30 21 18 32 22 34 24 35 7 9 -4 700-850 TADV 3 3 1 0 0 -5 -6 -2 -1 5 4 5 6 LAND (KM) 1456 1549 1653 1759 1869 2042 2218 2209 1984 1792 1634 1471 1290 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.5 15.7 16.2 16.9 17.6 18.3 18.8 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 121.3 122.8 124.3 125.7 127.1 129.7 132.1 134.2 136.2 137.9 139.3 140.8 142.5 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 11 19 16 11 36 31 22 19 8 0 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 10. 9. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 18. 23. 31. 30. 29. 26. 20. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.8 121.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102016 IVETTE 08/03/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 3.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.61 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.19 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.27 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.56 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.23 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 210.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.61 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.10 -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 19.4% 15.6% 11.9% 0.0% 14.4% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 9.1% 4.2% 1.1% 0.4% 3.0% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 8.7% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% Consensus: 3.7% 12.4% 7.3% 4.5% 0.2% 5.8% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 IVETTE 08/03/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##