* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102016 08/04/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 48 51 57 62 64 65 61 58 54 49 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 48 51 57 62 64 65 61 58 54 49 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 44 45 48 50 52 52 50 46 41 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 7 5 5 9 4 4 6 8 10 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -4 -3 -3 -5 0 0 1 4 5 2 3 SHEAR DIR 18 347 333 316 299 313 317 282 254 252 215 227 216 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.3 27.7 26.8 26.3 26.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 147 144 143 145 145 147 141 131 126 124 123 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 65 65 66 65 66 63 61 59 54 52 52 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 16 17 17 19 20 20 20 20 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -46 -37 -25 -17 -9 -10 -16 -24 -13 -1 5 18 200 MB DIV 18 23 15 16 27 35 19 23 36 23 13 14 -2 700-850 TADV 4 3 1 0 -1 -8 -2 0 2 1 5 6 6 LAND (KM) 1579 1679 1788 1897 1994 2159 2290 2159 1932 1719 1519 1356 1217 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 14.8 14.9 14.9 15.1 15.5 16.1 16.9 17.6 18.3 18.8 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 122.7 124.2 125.7 127.1 128.4 130.8 132.8 134.7 136.7 138.6 140.4 141.9 143.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 13 12 11 10 10 10 9 9 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 20 16 13 37 41 36 22 19 5 4 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 17. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 22. 24. 25. 21. 18. 14. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.5 122.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102016 IVETTE 08/04/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.63 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.27 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.67 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.21 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 201.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.62 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.09 -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 26.1% 19.5% 12.8% 12.0% 16.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 7.6% 3.5% 1.2% 0.5% 2.1% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% Consensus: 3.6% 12.4% 8.0% 4.8% 4.2% 6.4% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 IVETTE 08/04/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##