* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL052016 08/04/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 76 78 79 76 75 71 69 68 67 68 70 V (KT) LAND 70 54 42 36 33 33 31 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 70 54 42 35 32 37 42 32 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 17 14 11 13 13 15 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -3 -5 -3 -5 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 320 344 1 339 334 5 21 34 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.1 29.7 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 170 172 164 158 159 164 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 169 166 164 166 157 147 148 153 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 11 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 73 74 75 77 79 80 78 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 17 15 15 11 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 32 33 32 32 47 47 45 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 93 77 57 39 35 44 41 31 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -1 3 -5 -4 -6 -5 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -10 -121 -114 -55 -29 30 5 -105 -235 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.6 19.0 19.6 20.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.3 89.3 90.4 91.5 92.6 94.5 95.9 97.5 99.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 11 11 10 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 51 35 49 44 15 8 28 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 15.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -6. -12. -15. -20. -22. -23. -24. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 9. 6. 5. 1. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.4 88.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052016 EARL 08/04/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 10.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.61 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.24 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.93 5.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.52 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.41 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.59 2.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 146.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.8 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 5.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 17.2% 44.6% 30.7% 21.2% 14.1% 24.6% 19.8% Logistic: 40.2% 65.3% 51.0% 48.6% 0.0% 19.9% 11.5% Bayesian: 15.5% 18.1% 5.1% 4.3% 2.2% 14.0% 0.0% Consensus: 24.3% 42.7% 28.9% 24.7% 5.4% 19.5% 10.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052016 EARL 08/04/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052016 EARL 08/04/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 54 42 36 33 33 31 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 70 69 57 51 48 48 46 42 42 42 42 42 42 12HR AGO 70 67 66 60 57 57 55 51 51 51 51 51 51 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 57 57 55 51 51 51 51 51 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT