* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102016 08/04/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 47 50 56 58 60 59 58 53 49 44 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 47 50 56 58 60 59 58 53 49 44 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 43 44 45 47 47 47 46 41 36 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 6 7 9 11 5 6 10 9 12 13 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 -2 -3 -3 0 1 1 4 4 4 6 SHEAR DIR 359 341 315 289 294 330 289 272 247 258 209 217 218 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 27.5 26.7 26.3 26.2 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 145 143 144 145 146 147 139 130 126 124 122 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 65 64 62 62 59 55 55 56 53 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 16 17 17 19 19 20 20 21 19 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -39 -26 -17 -8 -7 -4 -12 -14 -4 9 12 24 200 MB DIV 19 18 18 23 38 41 33 38 52 28 24 -1 -7 700-850 TADV 4 2 0 0 -3 -6 0 0 1 4 9 7 9 LAND (KM) 1668 1775 1888 1973 2052 2199 2303 2100 1877 1665 1477 1314 1164 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.3 15.8 16.4 17.0 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 124.0 125.5 126.9 128.1 129.3 131.5 133.4 135.2 137.2 139.1 140.8 142.3 143.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 10 10 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 11 31 47 36 30 21 18 3 4 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 7. 7. 9. 6. 5. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 18. 20. 19. 18. 13. 9. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.6 124.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102016 IVETTE 08/04/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.63 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.33 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.65 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.66 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.23 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 198.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.62 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.10 -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 28.2% 21.0% 13.7% 13.2% 17.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 5.5% 3.1% 0.9% 0.4% 1.9% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 5.6% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 13.1% 8.6% 5.0% 4.6% 6.5% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 IVETTE 08/04/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##