* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL052016 08/04/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 58 58 59 60 60 63 65 67 70 73 V (KT) LAND 55 43 36 32 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 42 35 32 30 30 28 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 15 11 12 11 13 16 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -4 -6 -5 -3 -3 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 344 4 350 345 348 28 28 25 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.0 30.1 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 170 171 164 160 157 161 165 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 169 164 165 157 151 146 149 155 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -51.4 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 9 7 10 7 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 75 76 78 78 81 81 81 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 17 15 15 13 10 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 35 34 31 44 52 51 60 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 88 76 49 39 45 39 46 48 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -1 2 -3 -5 -1 -3 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -127 -141 -88 -63 -15 -26 -57 -200 -209 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.5 19.0 19.2 19.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.4 90.5 91.5 92.6 93.6 95.4 96.6 98.3 100.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 9 7 7 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 51 20 47 45 34 40 36 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -4. -7. -12. -15. -18. -19. -20. -21. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 8. 10. 12. 15. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.3 89.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052016 EARL 08/04/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.60 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.98 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.49 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.92 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.40 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.70 1.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 91.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.5 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 30.4% 14.7% 12.4% 9.7% 21.8% 0.0% Logistic: 21.6% 47.5% 33.9% 28.1% 0.0% 13.3% 8.5% Bayesian: 2.3% 9.4% 3.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% Consensus: 10.4% 29.1% 17.4% 13.7% 3.3% 11.9% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052016 EARL 08/04/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052016 EARL 08/04/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 43 36 32 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 55 54 47 43 41 40 39 38 38 38 38 38 38 12HR AGO 55 52 51 47 45 44 43 42 42 42 42 42 42 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 42 41 40 40 40 40 40 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT