* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102016 08/04/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 45 48 51 54 57 53 51 45 38 34 V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 45 48 51 54 57 53 51 45 38 34 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 42 42 42 42 42 40 37 32 28 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 9 8 6 7 10 11 16 22 25 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 0 1 2 4 4 1 2 5 SHEAR DIR 325 293 266 276 294 300 267 244 256 228 233 224 228 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.3 27.8 27.1 26.3 26.0 25.9 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 142 143 143 144 147 142 134 126 123 121 120 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.0 -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 64 63 64 63 62 60 58 55 53 54 52 51 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 16 17 17 18 20 18 20 18 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -25 -18 -8 -7 -3 -2 -12 -4 11 14 30 31 200 MB DIV 13 12 22 34 29 51 28 45 33 23 17 5 10 700-850 TADV 3 3 0 0 -3 -2 0 0 0 5 5 8 8 LAND (KM) 1765 1871 1962 2043 2128 2244 2183 1995 1805 1625 1438 1277 1130 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.8 16.4 16.9 17.5 18.2 19.0 19.5 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 125.6 127.0 128.3 129.5 130.6 132.5 134.4 136.1 137.8 139.4 141.1 142.6 144.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 10 9 8 8 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 18 12 30 38 35 34 25 20 10 0 2 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 4. 6. 4. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 13. 11. 5. -2. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.0 125.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102016 IVETTE 08/04/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.61 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.35 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.57 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.67 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.23 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 203.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.62 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.25 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 26.1% 19.8% 13.1% 12.1% 16.5% 15.6% Logistic: 2.2% 11.6% 3.9% 2.0% 0.8% 2.3% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 3.8% 13.2% 8.1% 5.0% 4.3% 6.3% 5.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 IVETTE 08/04/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##