* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102016 08/04/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 55 59 61 63 59 57 50 41 36 32 V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 55 59 61 63 59 57 50 41 36 32 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 52 53 54 54 52 47 42 35 30 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 9 9 10 7 9 16 15 20 22 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -3 -2 1 1 2 5 4 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 315 286 291 297 299 254 259 234 234 224 210 228 246 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 27.8 27.1 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 144 144 145 146 147 142 134 127 126 125 123 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 65 66 65 63 61 61 58 57 58 58 55 51 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 16 17 17 19 17 19 17 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -19 -14 -16 -7 0 -3 -3 7 20 15 25 13 200 MB DIV 4 10 23 20 21 45 45 34 25 43 -1 -18 -1 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 -2 -4 0 2 2 5 6 7 4 3 LAND (KM) 1878 1967 2045 2112 2182 2300 2165 1984 1786 1621 1465 1302 1121 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.6 16.3 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.4 18.9 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 126.7 127.9 129.1 130.1 131.1 133.0 134.6 136.2 138.0 139.5 140.9 142.4 144.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 9 8 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 27 43 42 38 40 25 20 10 2 4 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 13.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 1. 5. 2. -2. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 18. 14. 12. 5. -4. -9. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.7 126.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102016 IVETTE 08/04/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.57 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.43 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.88 6.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.18 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 210.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.61 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.47 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 15.5% 37.2% 25.5% 16.2% 16.0% 27.3% 23.4% Logistic: 14.7% 37.3% 18.5% 11.3% 6.2% 12.9% 8.6% Bayesian: 0.7% 12.8% 6.1% 2.0% 0.7% 6.4% 1.1% Consensus: 10.3% 29.1% 16.7% 9.8% 7.7% 15.5% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 IVETTE 08/04/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##