* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL052016 08/05/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 31 31 31 34 38 42 47 51 55 60 63 V (KT) LAND 35 32 34 33 34 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 32 32 29 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 16 17 15 12 15 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -7 -3 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 320 324 346 360 2 8 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 166 162 160 160 161 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 162 158 153 150 149 149 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 7 9 11 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 78 79 79 80 81 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 11 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 29 35 40 48 54 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 50 63 59 57 58 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 0 -7 -6 -4 -7 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -66 -38 6 51 28 -37 -144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.2 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.2 92.2 93.2 94.1 95.0 96.5 98.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 47 4 17 12 36 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -10. -11. -10. -10. -8. -6. -3. -1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -4. -1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 21. 25. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.0 91.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052016 EARL 08/05/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.56 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.68 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.56 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.38 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.82 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 15.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.92 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 15.3% 9.3% 8.1% 6.0% 8.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 19.0% 8.5% 2.7% 0.0% 3.5% 10.5% Bayesian: 0.9% 3.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 12.6% 6.1% 3.8% 2.0% 4.0% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052016 EARL 08/05/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052016 EARL 08/05/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 34 33 34 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 36 35 36 33 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 31 28 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 23 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT