* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102016 08/05/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 51 53 58 58 56 51 44 40 33 29 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 51 53 58 58 56 51 44 40 33 29 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 49 50 50 49 46 42 36 31 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 8 7 4 7 7 15 18 21 21 20 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -3 0 0 5 4 5 2 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 297 300 298 298 279 241 200 220 213 221 230 253 256 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.2 27.4 26.6 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 145 145 145 147 146 137 129 126 125 123 122 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.1 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 66 66 64 62 61 59 55 57 56 53 46 42 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 16 17 16 19 18 17 16 14 14 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -16 -17 -7 -4 -8 -8 -7 8 11 22 18 10 200 MB DIV 4 17 15 23 45 39 21 14 26 3 -9 -14 10 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 0 0 1 1 4 5 4 3 5 LAND (KM) 1981 2060 2143 2202 2264 2230 2048 1875 1695 1519 1346 1186 1028 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.9 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.8 16.4 17.1 17.8 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 128.1 129.3 130.4 131.4 132.3 134.1 135.7 137.2 138.8 140.4 142.0 143.5 145.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 30 45 43 39 40 33 24 17 1 3 3 4 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -2. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 13. 11. 6. -1. -5. -12. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.8 128.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102016 IVETTE 08/05/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.57 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.52 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.51 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.68 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.22 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 209.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.61 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.59 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 29.1% 22.9% 15.7% 14.2% 18.6% 17.9% Logistic: 2.5% 10.5% 5.0% 1.8% 0.8% 3.2% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 7.1% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6% 0.7% Consensus: 4.9% 15.6% 10.1% 6.1% 5.0% 7.5% 7.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 IVETTE 08/05/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##