* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102016 08/05/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 47 48 48 51 51 49 43 39 34 28 24 V (KT) LAND 45 45 47 48 48 51 51 49 43 39 34 28 24 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 45 44 43 41 38 33 28 24 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 8 4 7 7 15 18 22 22 20 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 0 0 3 6 5 3 0 2 1 3 SHEAR DIR 297 286 288 250 221 246 219 224 212 225 246 264 252 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.3 27.6 26.8 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 145 145 145 147 139 131 126 125 125 124 124 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.8 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 65 63 62 60 59 56 56 56 55 52 46 40 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 17 17 16 17 17 17 15 14 13 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -17 -7 -1 3 -4 -1 3 14 17 26 25 23 200 MB DIV 16 14 26 52 64 25 12 33 21 -12 -4 1 -3 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 1 0 2 4 6 6 2 2 1 LAND (KM) 2052 2124 2198 2244 2293 2134 1959 1789 1634 1451 1241 1029 819 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.3 17.1 17.8 18.3 18.7 18.8 19.0 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 129.2 130.3 131.3 132.2 133.0 134.9 136.4 137.9 139.3 141.0 143.0 145.0 147.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 8 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 44 41 38 37 38 24 19 5 0 3 5 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 3. 6. 6. 4. -2. -6. -11. -17. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.9 129.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102016 IVETTE 08/05/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.57 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.52 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.45 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.66 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.31 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 227.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.58 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.55 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 81.4 to 0.0 0.98 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.5% 26.5% 21.2% 14.4% 13.4% 17.0% 15.5% Logistic: 0.9% 2.3% 2.2% 0.6% 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 3.5% 10.1% 8.0% 5.0% 4.5% 6.1% 5.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 IVETTE 08/05/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##