* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102016 08/05/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 49 50 50 47 44 38 31 26 21 18 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 49 50 50 47 44 38 31 26 21 18 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 45 44 41 38 33 28 23 20 18 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 7 8 10 12 21 21 27 21 20 21 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 0 2 6 5 4 -3 -2 0 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 283 274 247 230 255 223 243 214 223 232 242 259 265 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.0 27.0 26.3 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 145 146 147 144 133 125 123 124 124 124 126 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 63 60 60 59 56 55 56 56 54 50 43 40 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 17 17 17 16 16 15 12 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -4 2 6 0 -3 0 10 11 13 13 15 9 200 MB DIV 15 25 54 65 43 23 35 20 -7 -7 2 10 -5 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 0 -1 2 2 4 5 3 4 4 2 LAND (KM) 2128 2187 2249 2303 2222 2028 1832 1676 1525 1355 1154 956 761 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.8 17.7 18.3 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.0 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 130.3 131.3 132.3 133.2 134.1 135.8 137.5 138.9 140.3 141.9 143.8 145.7 147.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 41 36 37 37 30 21 9 0 2 2 3 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 0. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. -1. -7. -14. -19. -23. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.0 130.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102016 IVETTE 08/05/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.58 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.48 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.63 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.60 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.35 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 244.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.56 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.55 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 81.4 to 0.0 0.95 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 11.8% 29.6% 22.5% 14.8% 14.7% 17.6% 14.9% Logistic: 1.2% 5.6% 2.3% 1.4% 0.6% 1.0% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 4.3% 12.1% 8.4% 5.4% 5.1% 6.2% 5.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 IVETTE 08/05/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##