* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102016 08/05/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 51 51 49 44 40 32 26 21 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 51 51 49 44 40 32 26 21 15 DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 51 49 45 39 33 28 23 19 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 11 12 14 22 22 28 25 21 22 24 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 3 2 4 5 0 -3 3 0 2 2 SHEAR DIR 275 246 236 249 234 229 228 221 225 232 243 258 257 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.4 26.5 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 145 146 145 137 128 122 124 124 124 126 128 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 61 60 58 57 54 56 57 54 51 46 41 40 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 16 17 16 15 15 13 12 10 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR -3 0 5 0 -4 1 8 17 13 24 18 14 7 200 MB DIV 28 50 58 51 44 10 33 14 -9 1 1 -5 -12 700-850 TADV 2 3 2 1 3 4 3 6 5 4 6 1 5 LAND (KM) 2183 2235 2289 2216 2114 1922 1742 1577 1406 1227 1050 832 584 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.4 18.1 18.7 19.0 19.1 19.0 18.8 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 131.4 132.3 133.2 134.1 135.0 136.7 138.3 139.8 141.4 143.1 144.8 146.9 149.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 30 32 33 26 22 19 4 5 3 2 3 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -5. -6. -9. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -10. -18. -24. -29. -35. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.4 131.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102016 IVETTE 08/05/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.52 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.38 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.48 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.44 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.39 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 288.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.49 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.71 -0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 11.1% 25.2% 19.5% 13.8% 12.9% 15.0% 11.9% Logistic: 1.2% 2.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 9.3% 6.9% 4.8% 4.4% 5.1% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 IVETTE 08/05/16 18 UTC ##