* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL052016 08/06/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 57 57 58 59 58 58 57 56 55 55 56 V (KT) LAND 50 43 37 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 43 37 32 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 15 17 16 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 2 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 341 339 356 4 343 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 159 160 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 144 144 143 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.4 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 80 80 83 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 10 7 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 66 65 67 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 55 62 67 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -6 -6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -1 -25 -72 -102 -132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 18.8 18.9 18.9 18.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.6 96.1 96.7 97.0 97.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 39 37 34 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 10.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -5. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.8 95.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052016 EARL 08/06/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.55 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.88 3.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.34 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.78 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.42 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.59 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 8.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.93 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.8 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.5 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 32.5% 19.1% 12.6% 9.5% 22.1% 20.0% Logistic: 23.3% 35.6% 21.2% 16.8% 0.0% 5.8% 14.6% Bayesian: 11.1% 42.0% 39.1% 5.3% 1.8% 13.6% 7.8% Consensus: 14.9% 36.7% 26.5% 11.6% 3.8% 13.8% 14.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052016 EARL 08/06/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052016 EARL 08/06/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 43 37 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 43 39 36 34 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 12HR AGO 50 47 46 42 39 37 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 37 35 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT