* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102016 08/06/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 47 44 39 33 26 20 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 47 44 39 33 26 20 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 49 48 46 43 37 31 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 13 15 20 20 29 27 20 18 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 4 5 6 4 1 -2 3 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 239 235 225 228 215 208 206 223 240 235 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.6 26.7 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 147 144 140 130 123 123 125 126 126 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.5 -53.7 -54.2 -54.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 57 55 56 57 56 54 50 46 41 39 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 16 15 14 13 11 9 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -4 -4 0 -1 0 3 5 2 2 0 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 41 32 29 8 11 11 0 3 -10 -22 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 5 3 3 5 2 2 0 1 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2308 2236 2134 2030 1928 1756 1610 1449 1283 1086 879 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.0 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.9 18.6 18.9 18.8 18.6 18.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 133.1 134.0 134.9 135.8 136.7 138.2 139.5 141.0 142.6 144.5 146.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 8 9 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 30 24 23 21 7 4 4 4 6 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -17. -24. -30. -35. -39. -39. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.6 133.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102016 IVETTE 08/06/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.52 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.35 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.49 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.29 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.28 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 300.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.48 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.1 to -1.7 1.00 -1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 20.1% 15.1% 10.2% 9.3% 10.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 7.0% 5.2% 3.4% 3.1% 3.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 IVETTE 08/06/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##