* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HOWARD EP092016 08/06/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 23 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 33 34 38 43 45 45 50 47 47 36 33 27 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 -1 -3 -1 0 0 1 -3 0 0 3 4 SHEAR DIR 281 278 279 284 285 283 275 270 276 278 287 279 288 SST (C) 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 122 124 125 127 128 128 126 123 122 123 124 124 125 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.1 -55.0 -55.0 -55.1 -54.9 -54.7 -55.3 -55.4 -55.6 -55.4 -55.3 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 33 33 33 33 33 33 38 38 41 41 44 44 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -34 -34 -30 -28 -33 -19 -22 -18 -30 -37 -46 -60 200 MB DIV -35 -34 -28 -28 -19 0 0 -5 -22 -1 -33 -13 -14 700-850 TADV -8 -3 3 0 -2 3 5 5 3 2 0 3 0 LAND (KM) 529 384 266 173 75 54 25 48 69 69 73 52 56 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 21.8 21.7 21.5 21.3 21.4 21.7 22.1 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.5 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 150.4 152.0 153.4 154.5 155.5 157.0 157.7 157.8 157.8 157.8 158.3 158.9 159.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 12 10 9 5 2 1 0 1 3 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 4 8 6 6 4 3 3 4 4 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 790 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -5. -15. -28. -43. -53. -58. -57. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -8. -17. -31. -44. -51. -55. -49. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.9 150.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092016 HOWARD 08/06/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.86 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -28.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 294.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.49 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.60 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 82.3 81.4 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092016 HOWARD 08/06/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##