* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102016 08/06/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 37 34 30 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 37 34 30 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 43 40 38 35 30 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 15 15 20 21 23 27 23 20 19 27 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 5 5 5 3 -1 1 2 1 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 241 242 232 234 208 215 211 249 254 263 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.2 26.5 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 145 141 135 128 125 126 127 129 131 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 56 57 56 57 54 51 45 44 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 15 14 13 11 10 8 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -9 -8 -5 -11 -2 -9 -6 -9 -10 -3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 25 14 13 8 -2 -14 -6 -15 -8 -30 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 5 2 2 3 5 2 2 1 1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2237 2131 2025 1927 1829 1660 1496 1337 1162 959 727 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.9 17.3 18.0 18.5 18.6 18.4 18.1 17.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.0 135.0 135.9 136.8 137.6 139.1 140.6 142.1 143.8 145.8 148.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 8 8 7 8 9 11 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 21 22 21 17 5 7 6 9 7 10 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -11. -15. -21. -27. -31. -35. -38. -38. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.9 134.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102016 IVETTE 08/06/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.55 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.28 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.36 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.12 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 266.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.53 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.1 to -1.7 1.00 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 10.7% 7.9% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.6% 2.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 IVETTE 08/06/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##