* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HOWARD EP092016 08/07/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 31 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 31 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 24 23 21 18 17 16 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 49 52 54 52 51 42 43 38 37 35 45 43 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -1 -1 3 0 0 2 3 -7 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 279 280 279 275 273 272 278 278 278 288 287 281 282 SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.0 25.6 25.4 25.4 25.6 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 130 129 128 125 123 121 117 114 114 117 121 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.1 -54.7 -54.7 -55.0 -55.9 -56.3 -56.3 -56.3 -56.2 -56.1 -55.8 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 34 34 34 35 39 39 45 51 54 53 53 52 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 4 5 8 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -29 -30 -29 -23 -31 -31 -29 -44 -58 -75 -81 -71 200 MB DIV -11 -14 -14 -19 -19 0 -18 6 -8 -11 -3 0 -21 700-850 TADV -2 -3 0 4 3 3 9 6 7 6 -2 -12 -20 LAND (KM) 78 42 23 15 0 75 127 204 323 411 450 448 428 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.8 22.0 22.6 23.2 24.0 25.1 25.9 26.2 26.0 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 156.2 157.5 158.5 159.3 159.8 160.2 160.2 160.0 159.9 159.8 160.3 161.1 162.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 8 6 4 3 4 5 6 3 3 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 12 9 7 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 815 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -8. -17. -30. -44. -55. -64. -66. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 4. 5. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. -4. -14. -25. -36. -41. -45. -50. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.7 156.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092016 HOWARD 08/07/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.92 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 51.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 286.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.50 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.55 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 69.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.14 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092016 HOWARD 08/07/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##