* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112016 08/07/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 38 45 49 50 46 39 35 35 36 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 38 45 49 50 40 38 30 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 33 35 34 33 28 28 26 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 11 10 12 10 11 8 10 6 6 5 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 2 2 0 -5 -4 -5 -3 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 76 69 69 75 70 48 17 36 13 38 311 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.4 27.6 26.9 26.7 26.9 27.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 156 154 153 147 139 131 129 131 137 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -50.5 -50.9 -51.4 -50.5 -51.1 -50.6 -51.2 -51.0 -51.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 8 7 8 5 6 4 4 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 77 73 73 73 71 70 69 67 60 54 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 9 9 10 12 11 10 7 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 53 61 66 39 32 12 19 12 0 6 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 42 39 25 8 33 35 27 0 -11 -1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 -3 -6 -6 0 -5 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 103 84 116 149 221 171 40 40 -11 25 -54 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.8 19.5 20.1 20.7 21.6 22.8 23.9 24.9 26.1 27.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.6 105.5 106.4 107.1 107.8 109.1 110.4 111.4 112.1 112.6 113.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 9 7 8 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 20 18 15 16 12 7 8 12 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 13.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 1. 0. -4. -9. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 8. 15. 19. 20. 16. 9. 5. 5. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.1 104.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112016 ELEVEN 08/07/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.83 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.24 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.79 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.42 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.29 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 61.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.82 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.30 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 27.6% 18.2% 11.3% 0.0% 13.2% 13.5% Logistic: 7.9% 35.8% 20.1% 12.6% 7.7% 17.9% 18.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 13.2% 5.5% 1.9% 0.5% 4.0% 0.6% Consensus: 6.0% 25.6% 14.6% 8.6% 2.7% 11.7% 10.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112016 ELEVEN 08/07/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##