* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JAVIER EP112016 08/07/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 47 50 53 55 57 53 47 40 34 32 31 V (KT) LAND 40 44 47 50 53 55 57 53 47 35 30 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 50 52 52 49 40 41 32 29 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 12 9 8 7 7 6 9 8 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 3 2 -4 -1 -3 -7 -3 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 74 72 76 68 55 26 349 339 319 302 296 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.6 26.8 26.5 26.0 25.3 25.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 151 149 146 139 131 127 122 114 112 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.6 -51.0 -51.3 -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 7 6 7 6 5 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 71 70 70 70 68 66 63 57 49 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 10 11 13 14 12 12 9 6 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 63 65 41 26 29 17 24 17 16 -11 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 46 36 38 33 31 15 16 -20 -1 -12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -1 -5 -5 -7 -4 0 -3 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 118 155 229 263 175 54 56 5 46 -45 -19 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.8 20.4 21.0 21.5 22.5 23.7 24.9 26.1 27.2 28.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.2 107.1 107.9 108.6 109.2 110.3 111.4 112.3 113.0 113.5 113.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 15 15 13 11 7 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 414 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 21.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. -4. -8. -11. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 13. 7. 0. -6. -8. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.2 106.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112016 JAVIER 08/07/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 4.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.68 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.19 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.76 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.33 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 90.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.77 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.44 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 31.0% 21.4% 14.6% 12.6% 16.2% 15.6% Logistic: 11.3% 24.8% 18.4% 12.6% 7.4% 15.5% 12.2% Bayesian: 1.1% 30.2% 13.0% 5.2% 1.8% 2.3% 0.3% Consensus: 8.7% 28.6% 17.6% 10.8% 7.3% 11.3% 9.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112016 JAVIER 08/07/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##