* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JAVIER EP112016 08/08/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 57 60 62 61 58 52 45 38 36 34 V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 57 60 62 61 55 49 35 30 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 53 56 57 55 52 46 42 32 30 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 7 6 8 6 6 7 7 12 9 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 2 0 -2 -1 -2 -2 -5 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 73 71 67 64 49 28 5 324 332 323 319 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.2 26.9 26.6 25.5 24.1 24.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 149 145 141 134 131 129 117 102 103 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.8 -51.1 -50.9 -50.3 -51.0 -50.8 -51.2 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 6 6 7 4 6 3 4 3 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 69 68 67 68 67 65 57 52 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 13 14 13 12 10 7 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 62 44 26 31 19 18 21 7 18 -3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 41 47 40 36 14 14 9 0 0 11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -5 -4 -8 -7 -4 -5 -1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 168 253 201 132 78 66 31 30 11 -23 -19 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.8 21.4 21.8 22.2 23.1 24.2 25.4 26.6 27.8 29.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.3 108.1 108.9 109.5 110.1 110.9 111.6 112.4 113.3 113.9 114.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 15 12 11 7 2 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 374 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 28.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 15. 17. 16. 13. 7. 0. -7. -9. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.2 107.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112016 JAVIER 08/08/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 4.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.61 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.16 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.81 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.34 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 128.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.72 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.42 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 15.4% 35.1% 23.6% 16.1% 14.6% 17.6% 16.4% Logistic: 29.1% 35.3% 36.1% 22.9% 15.1% 22.4% 10.9% Bayesian: 8.7% 16.9% 6.9% 2.6% 0.9% 1.8% 0.2% Consensus: 17.7% 29.1% 22.2% 13.9% 10.2% 13.9% 9.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112016 JAVIER 08/08/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##