* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JAVIER EP112016 08/08/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 54 55 57 56 54 52 46 43 41 40 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 54 55 57 42 40 33 32 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 49 49 46 36 38 30 32 28 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 5 4 6 5 6 5 10 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 1 -1 -2 0 -3 -3 -4 -2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 64 46 44 56 38 312 282 272 254 289 270 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.2 27.1 26.7 25.0 22.2 25.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 149 145 141 135 134 129 111 83 122 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.3 -50.9 -50.5 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 67 67 67 62 60 52 46 40 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 13 12 11 8 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 48 33 32 32 18 32 11 15 -9 0 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 49 46 42 29 6 32 -8 10 -2 0 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -5 -2 -5 -8 -3 -5 -1 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 254 195 117 52 17 17 0 -2 -39 28 -19 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.7 22.2 22.6 22.9 24.1 25.6 26.5 27.2 28.4 30.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.6 109.1 109.7 110.2 111.3 112.1 112.8 113.6 114.3 114.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 6 7 8 7 5 6 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 14 15 13 7 7 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 479 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 11.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -4. -8. -10. -12. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 10. 12. 11. 9. 7. 1. -2. -4. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.2 108.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112016 JAVIER 08/08/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.60 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.17 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.76 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.76 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.35 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 135.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.71 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.78 -0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 33.3% 22.9% 15.3% 14.2% 16.0% 16.6% Logistic: 8.9% 17.4% 15.9% 9.9% 5.3% 8.3% 9.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 5.9% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% Consensus: 7.7% 18.9% 13.5% 8.6% 6.5% 8.2% 8.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112016 JAVIER 08/08/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##