* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JAVIER EP112016 08/08/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 50 51 51 51 48 45 44 41 41 40 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 50 51 51 50 47 35 31 29 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 45 44 41 38 36 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 5 6 3 5 4 2 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 43 52 65 34 353 359 299 141 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.3 27.9 27.4 26.7 26.1 25.1 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 146 142 137 130 123 112 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.8 -50.5 -50.8 -51.1 -50.6 -51.2 -50.9 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 5 4 4 3 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 65 65 68 65 63 56 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 8 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 21 26 29 14 15 23 2 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 32 36 21 16 18 9 -6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -3 -5 -8 -6 -1 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 183 107 45 46 50 4 69 0 -35 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.1 22.5 23.0 23.5 24.7 25.8 26.7 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.9 109.5 110.1 110.6 111.1 112.1 112.9 113.5 114.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 10 6 2 15 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 3. 0. -1. -4. -4. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.6 108.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112016 JAVIER 08/08/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.58 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.12 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.90 6.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.77 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.27 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 164.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.67 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.68 -0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 33.7% 22.4% 14.2% 14.0% 16.0% 15.9% Logistic: 14.5% 18.4% 23.9% 12.8% 7.9% 13.0% 6.2% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 9.3% 17.7% 15.5% 9.0% 7.3% 9.7% 7.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112016 JAVIER 08/08/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##