* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JAVIER EP112016 08/08/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 60 60 57 53 49 44 42 40 38 37 V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 60 60 53 49 37 32 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 59 58 57 45 46 35 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 -2 -4 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 43 44 28 13 319 342 287 223 311 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.4 26.8 25.7 24.4 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 144 140 137 131 119 104 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.5 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 66 66 67 66 61 54 49 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 9 9 6 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 27 28 16 17 23 11 8 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 46 35 15 2 4 -4 13 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -4 -7 -7 -4 -2 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 105 36 29 32 25 8 18 -37 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.6 23.0 23.5 24.0 25.1 26.5 27.3 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.3 109.9 110.4 110.9 111.3 112.2 113.2 113.8 114.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 9 4 4 9 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 5. 2. -1. -6. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 22.2 109.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112016 JAVIER 08/08/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 4.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.47 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.10 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.66 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.26 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 179.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.65 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.58 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 14.8% 31.9% 23.6% 16.8% 14.6% 17.3% 13.9% Logistic: 5.7% 8.5% 9.1% 6.5% 3.3% 4.0% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.6% 3.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.0% 14.5% 11.2% 7.8% 6.0% 7.1% 5.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112016 JAVIER 08/08/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##