* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JAVIER EP112016 08/09/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 55 53 47 40 35 29 26 25 23 22 V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 55 53 47 40 32 29 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 55 53 51 45 39 31 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 8 6 3 6 5 3 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -4 -4 -2 -4 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 46 38 27 8 41 56 107 339 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.4 25.5 24.7 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 142 137 133 126 116 106 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -50.7 -51.2 -50.9 -51.2 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 66 63 58 51 49 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 8 8 7 4 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 32 14 19 18 15 3 -1 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 46 33 18 19 1 -1 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -3 -3 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 78 15 29 26 23 40 52 -6 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.8 23.4 23.9 24.3 25.2 26.2 26.9 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.6 110.2 110.7 111.2 111.6 112.5 113.3 113.7 113.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 5 9 15 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -2. -8. -15. -20. -26. -29. -30. -32. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 22.3 109.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112016 JAVIER 08/09/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.45 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.12 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.59 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.91 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.30 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 190.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.63 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.45 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 27.7% 20.9% 14.7% 12.7% 15.6% 12.1% Logistic: 2.4% 2.9% 3.8% 1.9% 0.9% 1.5% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 10.4% 8.3% 5.6% 4.5% 5.7% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112016 JAVIER 08/09/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##