* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JAVIER EP112016 08/09/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 33 31 29 24 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 36 33 31 30 25 20 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 35 31 28 24 24 21 22 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 7 5 5 2 1 3 2 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -4 -1 -3 -4 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 27 7 348 11 14 83 164 87 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.7 26.1 25.4 24.4 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 138 132 129 122 115 104 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 62 60 57 51 47 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 8 6 5 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 14 16 16 19 12 9 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 34 13 16 11 2 16 -15 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -5 -4 -2 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 11 21 18 13 2 69 0 -46 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.5 24.0 24.5 25.0 25.8 26.7 27.4 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.2 110.7 111.2 111.7 112.2 112.9 113.4 113.8 114.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 9 13 5 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -3. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -11. -16. -21. -23. -25. -26. -27. -27. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 23.0 110.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112016 JAVIER 08/09/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.12 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.55 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.10 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.86 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.24 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 171.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.66 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.47 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 24.1% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.7% 2.5% 0.2% 0.1% 1.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 8.3% 6.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112016 JAVIER 08/09/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##