* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102016 08/09/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 20 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 25 29 34 34 30 28 25 21 14 17 16 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -3 -6 -7 -6 -8 -8 -7 -4 -5 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 272 268 259 256 256 266 275 292 298 288 267 270 267 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 134 133 133 136 142 145 148 147 145 144 143 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 40 38 37 36 35 35 36 38 42 45 48 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 0 4 8 7 3 16 23 36 31 33 21 15 200 MB DIV -1 -7 0 0 -12 0 -6 -14 -8 17 3 17 -12 700-850 TADV -1 2 1 -2 -1 -3 -5 -6 -2 -1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1152 1057 972 901 831 705 609 558 535 555 602 641 700 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.2 16.9 16.2 15.3 14.4 13.9 13.7 13.9 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 144.2 145.1 145.9 146.6 147.3 148.7 150.2 151.9 153.8 155.7 157.2 158.6 159.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 8 9 10 10 8 7 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 9 11 15 23 28 30 40 33 31 24 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -10. -16. -21. -23. -23. -21. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -22. -26. -27. -28. -27. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.0 144.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102016 IVETTE 08/09/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 38.9 to 2.1 1.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.05 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 212.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.50 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 44.6 81.4 to 0.0 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 IVETTE 08/09/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##