* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JAVIER EP112016 08/09/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 25 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 25 21 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 24 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 6 5 3 4 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -1 -2 -5 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 13 345 344 324 337 133 192 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.3 26.8 26.5 26.0 25.1 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 136 131 128 122 111 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -51.0 -51.3 -51.0 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 3 2 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 66 62 58 57 50 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 20 18 24 16 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 4 6 6 6 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -3 -2 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 36 28 1 40 65 0 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.4 24.1 24.7 25.3 25.9 26.7 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.8 111.4 112.0 112.5 113.0 113.5 113.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 6 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 8 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 19. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. -10. -7. -5. -4. -1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -16. -14. -12. -12. -11. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.4 110.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112016 JAVIER 08/09/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.03 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.59 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.04 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.78 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.76 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.14 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 142.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.70 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.45 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 17.3% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.2% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 5.9% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112016 JAVIER 08/09/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##