* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102016 08/10/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 19 19 19 20 19 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 32 34 30 28 27 24 17 16 16 18 21 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -6 -5 -5 -6 -5 -2 -5 -5 -6 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 256 254 258 262 263 284 305 300 295 274 258 264 264 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 140 141 142 144 143 144 143 142 143 143 144 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 37 38 37 37 37 37 40 44 45 50 51 54 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 3 9 11 14 15 18 22 29 33 31 11 8 4 200 MB DIV 0 -10 -7 -1 20 4 -28 5 -2 0 13 13 4 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 3 0 2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 914 801 703 619 544 437 411 553 729 886 966 1064 1140 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.5 16.4 16.3 16.2 15.7 15.2 14.7 14.6 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 146.7 147.9 149.0 150.0 151.0 153.2 155.7 158.4 160.9 163.1 165.0 166.7 168.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 11 13 13 11 10 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 22 29 29 24 32 36 22 23 18 26 68 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -9. -14. -17. -19. -19. -18. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -15. -16. -18. -17. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.6 146.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102016 IVETTE 08/10/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.96 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.08 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 217.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.52 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 49.5 81.4 to 0.0 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 IVETTE 08/10/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##