* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102016 08/10/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 25 25 23 20 17 16 16 15 16 20 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 25 25 23 20 17 16 16 15 16 20 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 23 22 21 21 22 23 24 25 25 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 32 31 29 28 25 19 16 13 19 19 19 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -7 -7 -6 -5 -4 -4 -4 -4 -5 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 252 259 269 272 280 291 301 304 275 281 277 286 288 SST (C) 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 147 147 147 147 147 145 146 147 147 147 147 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.3 -54.0 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 39 40 40 40 40 41 44 47 51 54 58 65 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 13 11 15 17 20 25 26 29 21 16 8 6 200 MB DIV -11 -4 11 30 26 -15 10 11 1 28 29 10 29 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -3 -6 -4 -3 0 1 0 0 1 -1 LAND (KM) 795 692 616 555 507 526 684 916 1084 1242 1376 1499 1608 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 15.6 15.3 15.1 14.8 14.2 13.8 13.6 13.6 13.8 14.4 14.9 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 148.3 149.7 151.0 152.2 153.5 156.2 159.2 162.3 165.1 167.8 170.1 171.9 173.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 13 14 15 14 14 12 11 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 26 31 29 34 42 33 22 21 31 72 56 63 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 750 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -13. -15. -16. -17. -16. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.9 148.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102016 IVETTE 08/10/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 38.9 to 2.1 1.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 211.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.49 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 54.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 1.1% Consensus: 0.4% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 IVETTE 08/10/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##