* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102016 08/10/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 26 24 22 20 20 19 19 23 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 26 24 22 20 20 19 19 23 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 23 23 24 25 27 29 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 32 29 28 26 22 21 15 19 20 26 21 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -7 -7 -6 -5 -6 -4 -3 -3 -5 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 260 267 276 288 295 309 305 294 279 278 291 303 298 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 146 146 146 146 145 147 149 148 149 147 145 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 37 38 39 39 40 42 45 48 53 57 65 71 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 4 3 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 7 8 11 12 20 29 26 29 18 11 5 13 200 MB DIV -9 10 33 9 -17 13 28 7 29 58 44 40 27 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -6 -8 -8 -4 -2 1 2 3 3 3 4 LAND (KM) 637 540 478 454 491 671 924 1113 1294 1461 1600 1720 1803 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.5 15.2 14.9 14.5 14.0 13.7 13.6 13.8 14.4 15.2 16.0 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 150.2 151.9 153.3 154.7 156.1 159.3 162.5 165.6 168.5 171.1 173.2 174.9 176.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 14 15 15 16 15 14 12 10 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 29 28 39 37 34 21 20 49 62 64 49 27 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 794 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -18. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.8 150.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102016 IVETTE 08/10/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.44 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.99 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 224.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.51 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 78.9 81.4 to 0.0 0.03 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.1% 2.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.7% Consensus: 0.4% 1.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 IVETTE 08/10/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##