* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102016 08/11/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 26 25 23 22 21 20 20 23 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 26 25 23 22 21 20 20 23 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 24 25 26 28 29 29 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 26 25 25 23 20 17 22 20 27 27 28 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -5 -5 -6 -4 -3 -5 1 0 0 6 3 SHEAR DIR 273 281 284 283 288 292 291 286 288 301 319 313 303 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 149 149 148 150 151 151 150 148 145 143 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 37 37 39 41 42 47 50 55 58 67 71 75 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 7 12 13 16 22 26 23 10 -4 -6 6 10 200 MB DIV 25 9 -13 -13 12 25 15 11 39 31 15 19 24 700-850 TADV -7 -10 -8 -4 -1 -3 0 4 5 5 4 6 5 LAND (KM) 522 513 567 665 781 1055 1266 1457 1620 1768 1880 1954 1982 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.3 13.9 13.5 13.2 12.7 12.6 12.9 13.7 14.7 15.7 16.5 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 153.4 155.1 156.7 158.3 159.9 163.2 166.6 169.7 172.4 174.7 176.4 177.5 178.0 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 16 17 16 14 13 11 8 6 3 HEAT CONTENT 48 48 36 22 16 17 69 62 71 23 23 28 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 787 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -18. -18. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.7 153.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102016 IVETTE 08/11/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.45 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.96 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 226.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.58 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.48 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 70.2 81.4 to 0.0 0.14 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 10.4% 5.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.0% 1.1% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 IVETTE 08/11/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##