* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102016 08/11/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 25 27 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 25 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 25 26 27 29 30 31 31 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 25 26 24 22 19 19 20 24 31 26 30 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -5 -5 -5 -3 -4 -3 -3 -5 3 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 281 280 280 288 292 299 276 292 301 325 329 328 329 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 147 147 149 150 151 150 150 147 146 147 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 38 38 41 43 44 49 53 56 64 72 73 73 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 17 22 26 25 30 28 17 5 1 -1 -5 0 200 MB DIV 4 -17 -6 9 13 21 -4 23 44 10 7 4 7 700-850 TADV -10 -10 -5 -2 -4 -3 1 5 4 0 3 1 -3 LAND (KM) 501 556 671 801 947 1198 1413 1596 1768 1919 2035 2135 4323 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.1 13.7 13.4 13.1 12.7 12.7 13.3 14.2 15.1 16.0 16.5 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 155.3 157.1 158.8 160.5 162.2 165.6 168.9 171.8 174.4 176.5 178.1 179.3 180.3 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 17 17 17 15 14 12 10 8 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 48 33 17 15 17 47 65 70 28 22 34 52 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 808 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. -19. -19. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.4 155.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102016 IVETTE 08/11/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.34 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.08 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 223.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.56 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 64.7 81.4 to 0.0 0.21 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 10.1% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 IVETTE 08/11/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##