* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062016 08/17/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 39 42 47 52 53 53 51 50 49 51 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 39 42 47 52 53 53 51 50 49 51 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 44 47 47 45 42 40 39 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 5 4 4 9 11 16 21 23 24 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -3 -2 0 0 1 5 5 2 7 3 SHEAR DIR 48 69 126 164 186 220 225 233 243 261 263 253 269 SST (C) 27.4 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.5 27.6 28.0 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 130 125 122 121 121 121 120 123 126 130 131 136 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 121 118 116 115 113 111 113 116 120 119 122 127 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 62 61 59 58 58 54 49 43 42 42 44 46 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 14 13 13 13 15 14 13 12 11 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 91 79 58 43 30 29 34 23 15 -11 -28 -47 -53 200 MB DIV 2 4 15 19 13 13 14 2 2 12 3 5 14 700-850 TADV -2 -3 0 0 -1 2 7 12 9 16 18 16 16 LAND (KM) 1867 1948 1988 1969 1957 1973 1965 1943 1953 1990 1988 1846 1727 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.7 14.4 15.2 15.9 17.5 18.5 19.4 20.5 21.7 23.2 24.4 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 34.7 35.6 36.4 37.2 38.0 39.5 40.9 42.4 44.0 45.7 47.3 49.1 50.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 9 8 9 9 11 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 13 10 9 6 4 2 6 8 6 6 10 20 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 18. 21. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 12. 17. 22. 23. 23. 21. 20. 19. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.9 34.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 SIX 08/17/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.89 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.50 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.39 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.16 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.55 0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 167.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.77 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 15.9% 10.8% 9.7% 0.0% 9.1% 17.0% Logistic: 8.7% 28.7% 16.8% 9.3% 0.0% 7.6% 5.9% Bayesian: 1.4% 3.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 1.7% Consensus: 5.2% 16.0% 9.5% 6.4% 0.0% 5.9% 8.2% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 SIX 08/17/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 39 42 47 52 53 53 51 50 49 51 18HR AGO 30 29 33 35 38 43 48 49 49 47 46 45 47 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 36 41 42 42 40 39 38 40 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 33 34 34 32 31 30 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT