* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062016 08/17/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 47 50 54 52 53 51 52 50 52 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 47 50 54 52 53 51 52 50 52 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 45 50 52 51 50 48 46 46 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 6 5 9 11 14 20 20 19 13 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -2 0 0 0 4 6 5 7 5 5 SHEAR DIR 62 111 139 160 182 216 226 246 252 258 263 260 274 SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.4 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 125 122 122 121 121 120 121 124 129 133 134 136 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 117 117 115 114 112 112 115 121 125 123 122 122 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 61 60 60 60 59 55 50 42 40 39 41 45 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 13 14 13 14 12 12 10 11 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 81 59 42 28 26 32 29 25 18 6 -18 -37 -39 200 MB DIV 1 -4 3 2 11 21 7 3 9 10 -5 10 5 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 0 2 7 9 12 15 17 12 14 LAND (KM) 1975 1953 1919 1904 1895 1881 1855 1806 1781 1796 1715 1576 1461 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.2 14.8 15.5 16.1 17.3 18.1 18.7 19.6 20.8 22.3 23.3 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 35.8 36.6 37.5 38.3 39.0 40.6 42.0 43.6 45.7 47.8 49.8 51.5 52.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 11 12 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 8 8 5 6 12 11 9 7 15 15 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -7. -8. -11. -11. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 19. 17. 18. 16. 17. 15. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.6 35.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 SIX 08/17/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.90 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.62 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.8 to -3.1 0.32 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.13 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.48 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 197.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 15.8% 11.0% 10.4% 0.0% 9.5% 17.7% Logistic: 9.3% 21.3% 12.4% 6.1% 0.0% 8.3% 5.7% Bayesian: 1.4% 4.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.8% 1.3% Consensus: 5.6% 13.9% 8.1% 5.6% 0.1% 6.2% 8.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 SIX 08/17/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 SIX 08/17/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 44 47 50 54 52 53 51 52 50 52 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 43 46 50 48 49 47 48 46 48 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 40 44 42 43 41 42 40 42 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 31 35 33 34 32 33 31 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT