* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/18/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 37 38 39 42 42 42 43 45 45 48 50 V (KT) LAND 35 35 37 38 39 42 42 42 43 45 45 48 50 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 38 39 40 39 38 36 35 34 35 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 8 12 12 12 17 22 22 20 13 11 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -1 0 0 3 4 3 3 4 1 1 SHEAR DIR 163 172 171 185 196 227 238 250 258 269 257 275 279 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 120 120 121 124 127 131 134 134 138 142 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 117 113 111 113 116 117 122 124 124 126 128 131 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 57 58 56 55 55 47 42 40 38 39 43 47 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 53 40 31 26 34 32 28 19 -2 -25 -37 -47 -49 200 MB DIV -12 -4 4 16 26 23 -6 5 6 -5 13 -1 -5 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 14 9 9 6 LAND (KM) 1865 1845 1833 1815 1799 1772 1751 1740 1706 1613 1452 1327 1208 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.9 16.5 16.9 17.2 18.2 19.0 19.7 20.7 21.8 23.1 24.1 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 38.5 39.4 40.3 41.0 41.7 43.4 45.1 46.8 48.8 50.7 52.7 54.5 56.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 8 8 10 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 9 6 5 9 13 15 9 9 9 19 25 27 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -10. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 7. 8. 10. 10. 13. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.2 38.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/18/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.80 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.59 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.54 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.14 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.46 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 230.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.71 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 15.5% 10.7% 9.8% 0.0% 9.0% 15.4% Logistic: 4.6% 17.1% 9.1% 4.6% 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 11.0% 6.6% 4.8% 0.0% 3.3% 5.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/18/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/18/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 37 38 39 42 42 42 43 45 45 48 50 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 38 41 41 41 42 44 44 47 49 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 36 36 36 37 39 39 42 44 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 29 29 29 30 32 32 35 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT