* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/18/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 46 47 49 47 47 48 46 46 49 51 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 46 47 49 47 47 48 46 46 49 51 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 46 46 47 46 44 43 41 41 43 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 9 11 9 11 17 19 19 17 16 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 2 3 3 5 5 5 6 5 3 4 2 SHEAR DIR 185 171 173 185 200 221 240 256 259 253 267 282 274 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.5 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 123 120 121 121 122 125 129 133 134 135 138 144 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 113 113 113 114 117 120 124 124 123 126 131 137 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 60 57 57 56 54 48 44 40 40 39 44 43 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 15 14 13 12 12 12 10 9 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 42 31 30 30 30 25 21 12 -14 -44 -46 -54 -33 200 MB DIV -16 -3 13 24 30 34 6 27 7 -20 -24 4 -7 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 3 4 5 8 11 10 11 9 5 5 LAND (KM) 1826 1805 1789 1774 1756 1713 1712 1723 1632 1479 1329 1182 1089 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.5 18.2 19.1 20.1 21.2 22.1 22.9 23.9 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 39.6 40.4 41.2 41.9 42.7 44.4 46.1 48.1 50.2 52.1 53.9 56.0 58.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 11 15 16 11 9 9 21 17 26 20 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 7. 9. 7. 7. 8. 6. 6. 9. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.8 39.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/18/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.79 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.66 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.57 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.16 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.41 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 262.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.68 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 17.3% 12.0% 11.2% 9.1% 9.9% 17.8% Logistic: 6.6% 21.3% 13.0% 7.4% 0.0% 2.7% 0.6% Bayesian: 1.0% 2.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% Consensus: 4.9% 13.7% 8.6% 6.2% 3.0% 4.3% 6.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/18/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/18/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 45 46 47 49 47 47 48 46 46 49 51 18HR AGO 40 39 42 43 44 46 44 44 45 43 43 46 48 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 40 38 38 39 37 37 40 42 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 33 31 31 32 30 30 33 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT